Executive Overview
Strategic EV market insights for Auto Dealerships and OEMs.
Navigating the Wealth & Infrastructure Barrier
While EV margins remain strong for luxury tiers, volume scaling faces systemic friction. EV adoption is currently heavily gated by household income and residential infrastructure. Over 60% of EV buyers earn over $100,000 annually, and 82% own their primary residence
Market headline · Q2 2026
~5.8%
US EV share of new-vehicle sales
Cox Automotive / Kelley Blue Book · Q2 2026
~Half
Tesla share of US EV sales
Cox Automotive / Kelley Blue Book · Q2 2026
25%
New-vehicle shoppers "very likely" to consider an EV
J.D. Power 2026 U.S. EV Consideration Study · 2026
18%
Apartment residents "very likely" to consider an EV
J.D. Power 2026 U.S. EV Consideration Study · 2026
$125k+
Median EV Buyer Income
$53k
Avg EV Transaction Price
82%
EV Buyer Homeownership Rate
45%
Millennial EV Purchase Intent
Income Barrier
CriticalWith average transaction prices lingering around $53,000, EV affordability remains out of reach for average Gen Z and Millennial buyers earning under $90,000.
Infrastructure Gate
WarningOver 80% of charging takes place at home overnight. Renters in multi-family units experience severe friction, making homeownership the #1 predictor of conversion.
Legacy OEM Pivot
OpportunityLegacy brands (Hyundai/Kia, Ford, GM, VW Group) are capturing non-Tesla market share by introducing family SUVs.
OEM Brand Analysis & Financing Matrix
Market penetration, MSRPs, buyer incomes, and interactive financing calculators with brand logos.
Market Landscape: MSRP vs. Buyer Household Income
Bubble size reflects relative U.S. market share percentage.
Detailed Manufacturer Financial Matrix
Tesla
Model Y, Model 3
Ford
Mach-E, Lightning
GM
Blazer, Lyriq
Hyundai/Kia
IONIQ 5, EV6
Volkswagen
ID.4, ID. Buzz
Audi
Q4 e-tron, Q8 e-tron
Porsche
Taycan, Macan EV
Lambo / Bentley
Revuelto, Ultra-Lux
BMW
i4, iX, i7
Mercedes-Benz
EQE, EQS, EQB
Volvo
EX30, XC40
Rivian
R1T, R1S, R2
Lucid
Air Touring
Generational Household Income Analysis
Comparing generational income levels against the $115k EV buyer threshold and purchase intent.
Avg. Household Income vs. EV Buyer Threshold
High MSRPs create a significant gap for Gen Z and Millennials.
Intent vs. Reality: Current EV Ownership vs Purchase Intent
Younger buyers express high interest but face financial prerequisites. Source needed
Gen Z (18-29)
Avg Income: $50,000
Priced out of new EVs. Reliant on used EV tax credits or extended financing terms.
Millennials (30-45)
Avg Income: $90,000
Highest purchase intent (45%), but income lags $25k behind the $115k buyer baseline.
45% intent
Gen X (46-61)
Avg Income: $120,000
Prime sales demographic. Incomes align with current MSRPs ($50k+) and homeownership rates.
Boomers (62+)
Avg Income: $80,000
Highest homeownership rate (79%), but exhibit lower purchase interest due to ICE brand loyalty.
The Generational Housing Barrier
Analyzing homeownership as the ultimate prerequisite for EV adoption.
The Real Estate Chokehold
For OEM strategic planners and dealership principals, age and brand affinity are secondary to one single predictor: Homeownership. Charging exclusively at public fast-chargers negates electricity cost savings and adds major convenience friction.
While younger generations want EVs, their adoption is severely hindered by low homeownership rates compared to Gen X (70%) and Baby Boomers (79%).
Strategic Dealer Action Plan
Sales scripts must qualify home charging capabilities early in the sales funnel to prevent buyer remorse.
Gen X represents the sweet spot of high homeownership (70%) and solid purchase intent (35%).
Push aggressive lease terms or hybrid (PHEV) models to bridge the housing infrastructure gap for younger buyers.
Used EVs & Long-Term Depreciation
Evaluate up to 7 years of real-world value retention across major OEM brands.
7-Year Market Value Depreciation Curve
Tap brands below to compare them. Tap a brand again to remove it, or tap All Brands to show every curve.
Showing all 13 brands.
Compare Brands
Select as many brands as you like. The chart overlays their depreciation curves.
All Brands
Compare Matrix
Tesla
Ford
GM
Hyundai/Kia
Volkswagen
Audi
Porsche
Lamborghini
BMW
Mercedes
Volvo
Rivian
Lucid
Lot Matcher
Match every EV on the lot to the customers most likely to buy it, then call or text with a ready-made script.
6 EVs on the lot 60+ days
Estimated floorplan cost to date: $6,061 · burning $56/day. Each card lists its top 3 matched customers; tap one for the script.
Top 3 matches
Top 3 matches
Top 3 matches
Top 3 matches
Top 3 matches
Top 3 matches
How this works: floorplan cost to date = MSRP × floorplan rate ÷ 365 × days on lot (simple interest; your lender's terms may differ).
How this score works: Fit score 0–100 Show weights
The fit score is a weighted sum of five factors, each scored 0–1. Weights are normalised so the total is always out of 100. Drag a slider to re-rank every match instantly.
Loan assumptions for affordability
- •Affordability: estimated payment (60 mo, 7% APR, 10% down, using the dashboard's loan formula) as a share of monthly income. ≤10% scores full, ≥20% scores zero, linear between.
- •Home charging: homeowner = full; renter = 40% credit.
- •Timing: full if a lease ends within 90 days (or ended in the last 30); 85% if the current car is 6+ years old; half if a lease ends within 180 days or the car is 5 years old.
- •Segment fit: generation's average income ÷ income needed for the vehicle's price tier (capped at 1). Generation incomes from this dashboard (Gen Z $50k, Millennials $90k, Gen X $120k, Boomers $80k). Tiers: Entry (under $45k): needs ~$75k income; Core ($45k–$65k): needs ~$115k income; Premium ($65k+): needs ~$160k income. Core uses the dashboard's $115k EV buyer baseline; Entry and Premium are estimates.
- •Contact recency: counts only contacts within 18 months: full credit up to 3 months ago, fading to zero at 18 months.
Inventory
Click any vehicle to see its top 10 customer matches.
EV vs. your gas car, per month
Slide to match the customer. Every number is an estimate.
The EV
Driving & charging
Monthly cost
You'd spend $533 more per month
Includes a $626/mo EV loan; no current car payment entered. Charging $66 vs. gas $119/mo.
Trade-In Score
Estimate battery health, residual risk and a value band for a used EV in five inputs.
Vehicle details
Estimated battery health (SoH)
89–95%
~4.3 years old, 36,000 mi. Typical for this age: ~91%. Adjusted for: nothing (baseline conditions).
Residual Risk Score
Medium risk59 / 100
How this works: weighted sum of the three bars; higher = riskier to hold. See methodology below.
Estimated value band (SoH-adjusted)
Wholesale
$19,300–$21,300
Retail
$22,700–$25,600
OEM differs from the 8 yr / 100k mi default; verify with Tesla.
Value: Tesla curve keeps ~47% at this age, ×1.04 mileage, ×1.01 SoH.
Estimate only; get a battery health report (e.g. Recurrent or OEM scan) before final appraisal.
How this works: methodology & assumptions Show
| Assumption | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Initial battery loss | 2.5% in year 1 | Estimate (typical fleet data shows a faster first-year drop) |
| Ongoing battery loss | 1.5% per year after year 1 | Estimate |
| Mileage term | +0.25% loss per 10,000 mi | Estimate |
| Chemistry multiplier | NMC ×1, NCA ×1.05, LFP ×0.7 (LFP degrades slower) | Estimate |
| Climate multiplier | Hot ×1.25, moderate ×1, cold ×1.05 | Estimate |
| DC fast-charge multiplier | Low ×1, medium ×1.08, high ×1.18 | Estimate |
| SoH range width | ±(1.5 + 0.25 × age)% | Estimate; never shown as a single number |
| Vehicle age | Model year on sale ~6 months before Jan 1 of that year | Estimate |
| Chemistry by model | Auto-filled from the model list (e.g. Model 3 RWD = LFP) | Approximate model specs; verify with OEM |
| Depreciation curve | Brand curve from the Used EVs & Depreciation tab, scaled to the model MSRP | Dashboard data (source needed) |
| Battery warranty | 8 yr / 100,000 mi default; OEM exceptions flagged | Default per spec; OEM terms vary, verify |
| Residual Risk weights | Battery health 40%, depreciation outlook 30%, warranty remaining 30% | Estimate |
| Risk scaling | Battery: 75% SoH = max risk. Depreciation: next-year drop of 20% = max. Warranty: none left = max. Low < 35 ≤ Medium < 65 ≤ High | Estimate |
| Typical mileage | 12,000 mi/year | Estimate |
| Mileage value adjustment | −0.25% per 1,000 mi above typical (+ below), capped −20%/+10% | Estimate |
| SoH value adjustment | 1.5% per SoH point vs. a typical car of the same age | Estimate |
| Retail band | ±6% around the estimate | Estimate |
| Wholesale band | 80–88% of the retail estimate | Estimate |
Import Your Data
Load your own inventory and customer lists. Lot Matcher and the Payment Tool switch to your data as soon as both files check out.
1 · Dealership
2 · Inventory
inventory.csv
3 · Customers
customers.csv
Add both files to continue.
CSV specification
UTF-8 text with a header row. Column names are not case-sensitive, column order does not matter, and extra columns are ignored. Comma, semicolon or tab separators all work.
Your files stay in this browser. Nothing is uploaded to a server, so import again on each device you use.